Toledo to Miss Bells, Likely Margaret River Too

Ready for a World Title race shakeup? Well, it looks like we can remove Filipe Toledo from the running in 2016, as the Brazilian looks like he’ll miss the next two events of the Championship Tour season. Toledo injured his groin when landing an aerial maneuver at Snapper Rocks during the semifinal of the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast. His landing was altered by some backwash on the wave, causing his body to be compacted much more than he likely expected. Toledo was a warrior out there, though, toughing out the remainder of the heat and nearly winning it. It was clear, though, in watching Toledo surf the remainder of the semifinal that he was in pain and unable to perform to his usual level.

It's easy to forget how dangerous aerial maneuvers can be.
Courtesy of Stephen Tyler PJs

It was a big hit to lose Toledo from the Quiksilver Pro, as it appeared that he was headed for a second consecutive win there. What’s even more significant, though, is that this essentially removes him from World Title contention. A lot of people thought 2016 would be Toledo’s year, as he came close to winning it all last year. Missing two events, however, makes it nearly impossible to accrue enough points to contend for the World Title. Toledo will look to get healthy and compete in as many event as possible, but the repercussions will be felt throughout the CT ranks in the wake of this news. As if the upset-riddled Quiksilver pro didn't cloud the World Title race enough.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Takeaways From the Gold Coast

The World Surf League Championship Tour season kicked off this past week with a pair of events that were exciting, dramatic and entertaining. Here are some takeaways from the Gold Coast:

The Winners: Let’s start with Matt Wilkinson. Snapper marked Wilko’s first CT victory, and he was a standout all the way through. I had a good feeling about Wilko heading into the event, putting him on my Fantasy Surfer team, but I didn't expect him to win the event. The Aussie surfed the minimum number of heats possible in the event, and his backhand was on full display on each day of competition. He’s just the third goofyfoot (Go Left!) to win the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast, and he did it in convincing fashion. Some people may point to the Filipe Toledo injury and try to cheapen the victory, but don’t let that influence you. A win on the CT is incredibly tough to pull off, and some really good surfers never get one.

Matt Wilkinson's backhand is lethal.
Courtesy of Rian Castillo

As for Tyler Wright, I have to say that her win was even more impressive than Wilko’s. I’ve had a feeling that we were going to see a new Tyler Wright in 2016, and so far so good on that prediction. She looked great in Round 1 and never stopped shredding. Perhaps what is most impressive about her win is that she had to finish it out with wins over Carissa Moore and Courtney Conlogue, the Top 2 surfers from 2015. Wright seems focused and ready to seriously contend for the World Title this season, and she’ll be wearing yellow at Bells.

*I’d like to give a special nod Glenn “Micro” Hall, who began coaching both Wilko and Tyler this past offseason. He’s off the tour now, but he’s making more of an impact than ever. I dare say more people could be clamoring for his services in the not-too-distant future.

The Upsets and Rookies: The Quiksilver pro was filled with upsets, as guys like Julian Wilson, Mick Fanning and Gabriel Medina were all bounced really early at Snapper. Conner Coffin, Kanoa Ingarashi and Caio Ibelli all reached Round 5, which is basically unheard of for a trio of rookies in their first event of the year. I was especially impressed with Coffin, who possesses a powerful rail game that should net him some big scores in several spots on tour this season. Is this the year of parity in the CT ranks, or was this just a fluke occurrence?

The Women’s CT: The Women’s CT is in a great place right now. There are multiple surfers that are legitimately capable of winning a World Title, especially if Carissa Moore has a down year (dubious). But it’s not just top-heavy anymore. The depth of the women’s tour is only getting better, and standout performances by the likes of Johanne Defay and Bronte Macauley only prove this further.

Johanne Defay showed some progressive surfing on the Gold Coast.
Courtesy of chde.eu

Stu Kennedy's Board: Stuart Kennedy was the talk of the event for most of the week. His board looked faster than any other, and he parlayed that drive all the way to the Semifinals. Kennedy took down Kelly, Medina and John John along the way, showing that he is deserving of the major sponsor he lacks. While his performance was electric, his equipment may have gotten more attention. The Sci-Phi model is actually due to be released soon, and designed by none other than Slater Designs.

Mick Fanning’s Requalification: Mick has said he’s only going to surf select events this season, but he intends on requalifying for 2017. However, with a Round 3 exit at Snapper, Mick may have to surf more events than he wants to in order to earn enough points. Of course, he’ll probably win at Bells and shut me up, so let’s move along.

Toledo’s Injury: Filipe Toledo injured his hip/back/leg/unclear landing an air on some backwash. We don’t have much information, but he was headed from the beach to the hospital for some tests. He seemed pretty upbeat in a quick interview before his departure, so hopefully it’s not that serious. If he is forced to miss any events, it really shakes up the World Title race.

Some post-Snapper rankings that stand out:

Men’s CT

1. Matt Wilkinson: Speaks for itself.

2. Kolohe Andino: I thought 2015 was going to be a big year for Brother. Maybe I was a year early?

3. Stuart Kennedy: He should get a lot of injury replacement slots this season, so get used to seeing him.

5. Joel Parkinson: Parko looked good at Snapper before running into the buzz saw that was a pre-injury Toledo. Does he have another title run left in him?

5. John John Florence: John John looks motivated and more strategic. Every other surfer on tour should take note.

9. Conner Coffin: He was the most impressive of the rookies at Snapper.

13. Mick Fanning: Surprisingly early exit from the three-time world champ.

13. Gabriel Medina: Another slow start to the year is not what the former champ is looking for.

25. Julian Wilson: It was an ugly couple of days for Julian, who didn’t look like himself. Let’s hope he gets himself right for Bells.

Women’s CT

1. Tyler Wright: Could it be her year?

3. Carissa Moore: She didn’t look great, but she still made the semis. Look for fireworks at Bells.

5. Steph Gilmore: She’s back, but she’s not all the way back. Will she pick up steam as the season goes on?

5. Tatiana Weston-Webb: I really really impressed by the young Hawaiian at Snapper. How long until she’s competing for a World Title?

9. Bronte Macauley: Loved her style, and would love to see her in some events this season.

13. Sally Fitzgibbons: Sally experienced her first-ever Round 2 exit this week. Don’t expect it to become a regular thing. 

Follow Morgan, Founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Quarterfinal Preview

I don’t think anyone expected to see so many big names fall so early in the Quiksilver Pro, and we’ve got an interesting field of surfers remaining in the Quarterfinals. Let’s take a look at the next four heats:

Heat 1 – Filipe Toledo vs. Joel Parkinson: This is a battle of the young guns and the air game vs. the old guard and the rail game. It's the most intriguing heat of the quarterfinals in my opinion, as I could see either of these guys taking home the win in this event. Both Filipe and Parko have won at Snapper before, but Toledo has looked like the best surfer thus far this year. If Parko beats Toledo, I’d consider it an upset at this point. I can’t imagine typing that two years ago.

Heat 2 – Matt Wilkinson vs. Adriano De Souza: Wilko has surfed the minimum amounts of heats at the Quiksilver Pro to this point, and he’s looked really good doing so. However, he gets the reigning World Champ here. De Souza looked to be in trouble early in his Round heat against Connor Coffin, but he battled back in classic Adriano fashion and took home the win. If Wilko can beat De Souza here it could give him some amazing momentum to carry on throughout the season.

Heat 3 – Kolohe Andino vs. Adrian Buchan: Kolohe has looked electric at Snapper thus far, and maybe 2016 is going to be a massive bounce-back campaign for the young Californian. Ace Buchan has looked powerful and aggressive on the Gold Coast this year, though, so he can’t take this heat lightly. Kolohe has more upside in this matchup, but Ace is the more reliable surfer historically. It’s a tough call to choose a favorite here. Both guys have looked impressive.

Kolohe Andino is capable posting huge scores at any time.
Courtesy of Patrick Warren

Heat 4 – John John Florence vs. Stuart Kennedy: This should be a thrill ride of a heat if the guys get good waves coming through the lineup, and maybe even if they don't. John John has looked dynamic and focused in this event, an extremely dangerous combo. He has been tearing apart Snapper this year, drawing creative lines and showcasing his full repertoire. Kennedy, though, has been perhaps the most electric surfer in the event. His board has looked faster and shown more pop than anyone else’s. He’s already posted some huge upsets in the Quiksilver Pro, so who’s to say he doesn’t have another one in him? 

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Upsets Abound on the Gold Coast

If there has been one theme of the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast, it’s been the upsets. We have seen giant after giant slain by wild cards and replacements, and the remaining field certainly doesn’t look like what I expected to see. The boys are halfway through the non-elimination Round 4, but there are not many big names left.

The first big upset came two days ago when Julian Wilson went down in Round 2. He looked off in his Round 1 heat, and Sebastian Zietz took him out the next round. One heat later Kelly Slater fell to Stu Kennedy, setting the tone for the upset theme at Snapper.

Things continued to get wacky in Round 3, where we saw Mick Fanning, Gabriel Medina and Taj Burrow all go down. However, one juggernaut that looked as good as we expected was Filipe Toledo. Toledo has won all of his heats, including Round 4, and has already locked up a spot in the Quarterfinals. He looks like the in-form surfer of the event thus far, and we could see back-to-back wins for the Brazilian on the Gold Coast. I mean, just look:

Aside from Toledo, we’ve still got big guns like John John Florence, Joel Parkinson and Adriano De Souza lurking, but there are also surprises like Stu Kennedy and Conner Coffin still alive. Both guys have looked excellent on this event, and it will be interesting to see just how deep that can advance. Toledo and Matt Wilkinson have locked up their spots in the quarters, and we should see more heats today.

Here are the latest highlights:

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Round 1 Highlights

The 2016 has officially begun!

Quiksilver Pro Round 1 Recap

The Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast kicked off yesterday in some fun surf. Let’s take a look at how Round 1 played out:

Heat 1: Snapper suits Italo Ferreira well, and he started fast with the first wave of the season. It wasn’t anything special, but his smoothness on his backhand was evident from the get-go. That same smoothness earned him a 6.83 later in the heat, which ended up being the difference-maker. Ryan Callinan got close, but Italo earned the berth into Round 3.

Heat 2: This was a strong heat, and I noted that it was a tough draw for Julian Wilson. Small waves are usually not the forte of Michel Bourez, but he looked good, more like the 2014 version of The Spartan. Julian, my pick to win the event, finished third in this heat. Not time to panic yet.

Heat 3: Filipe Toledo won this event last year, and he looked good to start things off this time around. He took to the air in waves that didn’t seem all that conducive, but that’s become his trademark. He’ll be tough to beat at Snapper. Leaving him off my Fantasy Surfer team seemed suspect at the time, and now it feels even worse.

Did you leave Filipe Toledo off your Fantasy Surfer team? Probably not a great move.
Courtesy of Steven Tyler PJs

Heat 4: Medina Medina Medina. No slow start this season. The Brazilian looked dialed in, and his backhand is just naughty. He’s my pick to win the World Title this season.

Heat 5: Mick Fanning might not surf all of the events this season, but it’s clear that he didn’t slack off in training for this event. He put up the best heat total of the round and looked like the classic Mick on a pair of 8+ waves. Wade Carmichael, who narrowly missed out on a full-time spot on tour, get a nod here for surfing really well. Drawing Mick is tough.

Heat 6: Mikey Wright won a really tight heat here, upsetting the reigning World Champ. Adriano looked solid, as did Kolohe Andino, but Wright edged it out.

Heat 7: Jeremy Flores is one of the more underrated surfers on tour. Sure, everyone knows he’s an incredible barrel riders on his backhand, but the Reunion Island native can tag some lips too. His rail game looked on point in Round 1.

Heat 8: Matt Wilkinson has always had immense talent, but it only seems to translate to contest sporadically. Perhaps this was one of those sporadic occurrences, or maybe Wilko will finally put it together this year. You’ve got to love his backhand, and he showcased why yesterday. He scored a 9.33 on one wave, going vertical with some serious hacks. He took down Kelly Slater, the master, in this heat. Rookie Conner Coffin had one of the best turns of the event here too.

Heat 9: A bit of an unspectacular heat here, but Nat Young looked solid. Solid is probably the best way to describe the Santa Cruz goofy-footer most of the time. He definitely showed his power in this heat, and the judges seemed to like it.

Nat Young's power was on display on the Gold Coast yesterday.
Courtesy of Steven Tyler PJs

Heat 10: It feels like Taj Burrow is a bit of a forgotten man this year, and I may be as guilty as the next guy. Taj looked great yesterday on his forehand, and I’m glad I put him on my fantasy team for this event. It’s kind of amazing that he hasn’t won a World Title, and his window sure seems like it’s closed. Who says he can’t post a Top 5 finish this year, though?

Heat 11: For me, this heat was all about Jordy Smith when it began, but Wiggolly Dantas stole the show. He was dominant, surfing two really good waves and sending Jordy to Round 2.  

Heat 12: This was the heat I was most excited for in the first round. Joel Parkinson, the veteran, was able to outdo the young guns in this one. His patented smoothness was on display. While that’s not flashy, it got the job done. John John Florence and Jack Freestone both surfed good heats, but ultimately came up short. Parko just did a great job of maximizing his scores on waves that were not all that great, and that ended up being the difference.

The winners head to Round 3, while the rest of the guys have to surf in Round 2. Until then...

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Today's Snapper Rocks Forecast

We didn't get to see any heats yesterday for either the Quiksilver Pro or the Roxy Pro, but it wasn't all bad news. The conditions were good enough to put the contest on hold twice before calling a lay day. The swell sounded like it cleaned up quite a bit yesterday, but there simply wasn't enough size to run an event, especially so early in the waiting period. Here's what the Surfline Snapper Rocks forecast looks like for today:

Things look more promising than yesterday. The forecast is very similar, but with more size, which was really the only thing holding back heats. However, a late start is likely due to the high tide. Yesterday both contests were put on standby until 11:30 local time, so we may see a similar strategy from WSL commish Kieren Perrow today. Let's hope we see some action in the water today.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Gold Coast Waiting Period Begins Today

For those of us in the United States, this afternoon marks the beginning of the waiting period for the Quiksilver Pro and Roxy Pro Gold Coast. For me, the Pipe Masters seems like ages ago, and I can't wait to see the best guys and girls in the world get back in the water. The forecast via Surfline looks like we could see a start of at least one of the events today:

Let's hope we get to see some heats today. Here are some highlights from last year:

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Fantasy Surfer Picks

Here is a look at the Go Left Fantasy Surfer team for the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast:

Mick Fanning ($11.5M): Mick’s taking some time off this season, but I doubt he even considered missing out on Snapper. He still wants to qualify for the 2017 CT, so he knows he needs good results in the events in which he does participate. Therefore, don’t expect to see a laid-back approach from Mick on the Gold Coast. This is an event that Mick loves, and expect him to perform well.

Julian Wilson ($9.5M): Snapper suits Julian well, and he showed that last year by making the Final. He’s got an amazing arsenal, and I think 2016 will be a big year for him. Look for Wilson to get off to a hot start with a good result on the Gold Coast. He's my pick to win the event.

Joel Parkinson ($7M): Parko is just a year removed from making the Final at Snapper, and historically he has performed well at this event. The price tag is great for him here, and I think he’s definitely worth the selection.

Taj Burrow ($6.5M): This is a very similar pick to the Parko selection. Taj is another veteran that has performed well at Snapper over the years, and like Parko he’s got a very reasonable price tag.

Matt Wilkinson ($.5.5M): Sure, Wilko is a goofy-footer and Snapper is a right point, but Matty is at his best on his backhand. He made it to Round 5 in 2015, and he’s fresh off a victory at Surfest. He’s good value.

Koloho Andino ($3.5M): Brother had a disappointing 2015 season on the CT, but he backed himself up by surfing QS events and requalifying that way. I thought Andino was set for a career year heading into 2015, and I’m still not quite sure what happened last season. He’s supremely talented, and I like his chances of pulling an upset or two at Snapper. The talent you’re getting for the low price here is tough to find.

Jack Freestone ($3.5M): Freestone actually surfed in this event as a Wild Card last year, so there’s the experience factor. He actually performed pretty well, but was ousted in Round 2 when he came up against Kelly Slater. For this price you’re basically looking for a lottery ticket, and Freestone could take a heat or two if he gets the right waves.

Matt Banting ($3M): One of the best values of the event, in my opinion. Banting missed most of his rookie year due to injury, but prior to the ailment he took down Mick Fanning in Round 1 of this event last year before being edged out by Jordy Smith in Round 3. Not a bad track record for a guy you can get for $3M. 

When picking a lineup, my usual strategy is to spend big money only on guys that I trust to advance deep and have a real shot at winning the event (Mick, Julian). Value is a big part of this particular lineup (Parko, Taj) as well, and should always be a major consideration in building a well-rounded and deep lineup. To round things out it's always good to get some high-upside sleepers to use as lottery tickets (Kolohe, Banting). Excluding certain surfers will always be tough (Toledo, Medina), but the budget is the budget.

Play Fantasy Surfer and take a crack at your own lineup. It's free to play, and there are prizes to be won. 

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Event Preview

The waiting period for the first event of the 2016 World Surf League Championship Tour, the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast, will see the waiting period begin on March 10^th.  This event is held at Snapper Rocks, a fun right-hand point break on the famed Gold Coast of Australia. Let’s take a look at some of the most interesting Round 1 heats and make a prediction for the winner:

Heat 2 - Julian Wilson, Michel Bourez, Adam Melling: This looks to be one of the tougher heats of the first round. When the season starts, the rankings usually dictate tiered heats as one would expect, and the draws don’t get a little chaotic until after the first event of the year. However, we’ve got three pretty big names in Heat 2 here. Julian made the Final at Snapper last year and should be considered one of the favorites to win the event. Bourez had a fantastic 2014 season before some regression last year. Melling is a CT vet that missed requalifying by a single spot last year, and he’s at Snapper as a Wild Card. This is a tough draw for Wilson, as most of his elite colleagues have much easier heats to begin the event.

Heat 4 – Gabriel Medina, Caio Ibelli, Sebastian Zietz: The main reason I’m interested in this heat is to see how Medina begins the year. His slow start to 2015 was probably the only thing that kept him from winning back-to-back World Titles. If he can hit the ground, or water, running in 2016 then he should be on track to make a serious run at a second World Title.

Gabriel Medina will look to avoid a slow start in 2016.
Courtesy of A Scott

Heat 5 – Mick Fanning, Matt Banting, TBD: I think everyone is curious to see how Mick Fanning comes out of the gate this season in the wake of his decision to only surf selectevents in 2016. He knows he has to surf well when he does participate, though, with an eye on qualifying for 2017. Don’t sleep on Matt Banting, either, as he upset Mick in the first round of this event last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to Round 3 again in 2016.

Heat 8 – Kelly Slater, Matt Wilkinson, Conner Coffin: Is this Kelly’s last season? We’ve been saying that for half a decade now, and nobody really knows. Still, I’ll be keeping a close eye on how he looks at Snapper. After a 13^th last year, one would Kelly will be motivated to perform better. There is always the risk of him starting the season slowly and then skipping events down the line. Let’s hope not.

Can Kelly Slater add one more World Title?
Courtesy of chde.eu

Heat 11 – Jordy Smith, Wiggoly Dantas, Miguel Pupo: How will Jordy bounce back in 2016 from an injury-plagued 2015 campaign? That’s a big question for the CT this season, and this will be our first glimpse of the South African.

Heat 12 – Joel Parkinson, John John Florence, Jack Freestone: To me, this is the most interesting hest of the first round. Parko has surfed well here over the years, so he’s always a threat. If you read the Go Left preseason profile on John John, you know I think he’s in for a huge year. However, Parko has gotten the better of him several times in the past due to heat strategy and veteran savvy. Will John John continue to let stuff like that happen? He won’t win a World Title that way. Keep an eye on Jack Freestone too, as he’s got a ton of talent and got his feet wet with this event last year.

And finally...

The Go Left Projected Winner - Julian Wilson: I like Julian to win this event for a multitude of reasons. I see 2016 being a huge year for him, one where he is in contention for the World Title throughout the season. Snapper fits his surfing well, and he was able to make the Final last year. He’s got every trick in the book, he’s entering his prime and he’s got a competitive fire that one needs to win on the CT.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter at @GoLeftSurf

Worthy Watch: Gold Coast Trailer

Just a quick hit from the WSL for the upcoming Quiksilver and Roxy Pro Gold Coast. Waiting period starts March 10th. Event previews coming next week on Go Left!