Fantasy Picks for Men's Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach

Here is a look at the Go Left Fantasy Surfer team for the Men’s Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach:

Mick Fanning ($10,750,000): Mick saw a surprising early exit at Snapper, and if he wants to qualify while surfing select events he’ll need a good result at Bells. He won this event last year, and I expect him to advance deep yet again.

Nat Young ($7,500,000): This is Young’s best event on the CT, as his backhand was built for hefty rights like Bells. I love the value here for a guy that always does well at this tour stop.

Joel Parkinson ($7,000,000): I get a discount on the Aussie vet here thanks to my picking him on the Gold Coast as well, as his price to add to a team is now $7,500,000. Parko has done very well at Bells in the past, and his smooth rail game should have plenty of room to operate on some nice Bells walls.

Kelly Slater ($7,000,000): I don’t think Kelly took kindly to being eliminated early on at Snapper, and I think we may seem him get on a tear at the Rip Curl Pro. How can you not take him at this price?

Matt Wilkinson ($5,500,000): Here’s another carryover from my Snapper team, so I get Wilko at a $1,000,000 discount. It will be awesome to see the Aussie donning the yellow jersey after his win on the Gold Coast. He historically has not done well at Bells, which is a surprise given his strong backhand. 2016 Wilko looks like a new Wilko, though, and the discount was enough for me to play him.

Kolohe Andino ($4,500,000): Andino is coming off a runner-up at Snapper, and he carries another carryover discount for me. I don’t necessarily expect him to thrive at Bells, but his price tag presented great value.

Conner Coffin ($3,500,000): I really liked what I saw from Coffin at Snapper, as he’s got an old-school rail game that should suit Bells well. I love his value here.

Michel Bourez ($4,750,000): I don’t know why the Spartan has not been a standout at Bells over the years, as he’s got the kind of style that should suit the location well. I needed to fill my last slot, and I liked his price, but it’s definitely a risky pick.

Alternate – Sebastian Zietz: Seabass fell off the tour officially, but we should see him in a multitude of events this season. He looked sharp at Snapper, and he looks like the safest alternate option. Mason Ho and Stu Kennedy are good picks for an alternate slot as well.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Quarterfinal Preview

I don’t think anyone expected to see so many big names fall so early in the Quiksilver Pro, and we’ve got an interesting field of surfers remaining in the Quarterfinals. Let’s take a look at the next four heats:

Heat 1 – Filipe Toledo vs. Joel Parkinson: This is a battle of the young guns and the air game vs. the old guard and the rail game. It's the most intriguing heat of the quarterfinals in my opinion, as I could see either of these guys taking home the win in this event. Both Filipe and Parko have won at Snapper before, but Toledo has looked like the best surfer thus far this year. If Parko beats Toledo, I’d consider it an upset at this point. I can’t imagine typing that two years ago.

Heat 2 – Matt Wilkinson vs. Adriano De Souza: Wilko has surfed the minimum amounts of heats at the Quiksilver Pro to this point, and he’s looked really good doing so. However, he gets the reigning World Champ here. De Souza looked to be in trouble early in his Round heat against Connor Coffin, but he battled back in classic Adriano fashion and took home the win. If Wilko can beat De Souza here it could give him some amazing momentum to carry on throughout the season.

Heat 3 – Kolohe Andino vs. Adrian Buchan: Kolohe has looked electric at Snapper thus far, and maybe 2016 is going to be a massive bounce-back campaign for the young Californian. Ace Buchan has looked powerful and aggressive on the Gold Coast this year, though, so he can’t take this heat lightly. Kolohe has more upside in this matchup, but Ace is the more reliable surfer historically. It’s a tough call to choose a favorite here. Both guys have looked impressive.

Kolohe Andino is capable posting huge scores at any time.
Courtesy of Patrick Warren

Heat 4 – John John Florence vs. Stuart Kennedy: This should be a thrill ride of a heat if the guys get good waves coming through the lineup, and maybe even if they don't. John John has looked dynamic and focused in this event, an extremely dangerous combo. He has been tearing apart Snapper this year, drawing creative lines and showcasing his full repertoire. Kennedy, though, has been perhaps the most electric surfer in the event. His board has looked faster and shown more pop than anyone else’s. He’s already posted some huge upsets in the Quiksilver Pro, so who’s to say he doesn’t have another one in him? 

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Fantasy Surfer Picks

Here is a look at the Go Left Fantasy Surfer team for the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast:

Mick Fanning ($11.5M): Mick’s taking some time off this season, but I doubt he even considered missing out on Snapper. He still wants to qualify for the 2017 CT, so he knows he needs good results in the events in which he does participate. Therefore, don’t expect to see a laid-back approach from Mick on the Gold Coast. This is an event that Mick loves, and expect him to perform well.

Julian Wilson ($9.5M): Snapper suits Julian well, and he showed that last year by making the Final. He’s got an amazing arsenal, and I think 2016 will be a big year for him. Look for Wilson to get off to a hot start with a good result on the Gold Coast. He's my pick to win the event.

Joel Parkinson ($7M): Parko is just a year removed from making the Final at Snapper, and historically he has performed well at this event. The price tag is great for him here, and I think he’s definitely worth the selection.

Taj Burrow ($6.5M): This is a very similar pick to the Parko selection. Taj is another veteran that has performed well at Snapper over the years, and like Parko he’s got a very reasonable price tag.

Matt Wilkinson ($.5.5M): Sure, Wilko is a goofy-footer and Snapper is a right point, but Matty is at his best on his backhand. He made it to Round 5 in 2015, and he’s fresh off a victory at Surfest. He’s good value.

Koloho Andino ($3.5M): Brother had a disappointing 2015 season on the CT, but he backed himself up by surfing QS events and requalifying that way. I thought Andino was set for a career year heading into 2015, and I’m still not quite sure what happened last season. He’s supremely talented, and I like his chances of pulling an upset or two at Snapper. The talent you’re getting for the low price here is tough to find.

Jack Freestone ($3.5M): Freestone actually surfed in this event as a Wild Card last year, so there’s the experience factor. He actually performed pretty well, but was ousted in Round 2 when he came up against Kelly Slater. For this price you’re basically looking for a lottery ticket, and Freestone could take a heat or two if he gets the right waves.

Matt Banting ($3M): One of the best values of the event, in my opinion. Banting missed most of his rookie year due to injury, but prior to the ailment he took down Mick Fanning in Round 1 of this event last year before being edged out by Jordy Smith in Round 3. Not a bad track record for a guy you can get for $3M. 

When picking a lineup, my usual strategy is to spend big money only on guys that I trust to advance deep and have a real shot at winning the event (Mick, Julian). Value is a big part of this particular lineup (Parko, Taj) as well, and should always be a major consideration in building a well-rounded and deep lineup. To round things out it's always good to get some high-upside sleepers to use as lottery tickets (Kolohe, Banting). Excluding certain surfers will always be tough (Toledo, Medina), but the budget is the budget.

Play Fantasy Surfer and take a crack at your own lineup. It's free to play, and there are prizes to be won. 

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Preseason Surfer Profile: Joel Parkinson

Leading up to the 2016 World Surf League Championship Tour season, I will be counting down my projected Top 10 surfers for the highest level of men's competitive surfing. A preview of the women's 2016 season is also to come.

*With the news that Owen Wright will miss the first half of the season, I have had to make adjustments to the Go Left Projected Top 10 Rankings for the WSL’s 2016 Championship Tour. I originally had Owen fourth in my rankings, and with his participation limited I’ve omitted him entirely from the list. Joel Parkinson, the first man on the outside looking in at the Top 10 following the omission of Mick Fanning, now moves into the Top 10. I will edit previous surfer profiles to reflect these changes as well.

Joel Parkinson, Australia

2016 Go Left World Ranking Projection: 10

2015 World Ranking: 13

2015 WCT Wins: 0

2015 was a down year for Parko; there is no way around that. The oddest thing about last year was that it didn’t really appear as if his surfing had slipped, but he was on the losing end a lot of heats anyway. Perhaps that can be chalked up to bad luck, or the World Tour getting better, but one can’t simply ignore the results that Parko posted. The Aussie vet failed to make a single semifinal in 2015, which was extremely surprising, but he did finish the year with two fifths and a ninth in his last four events. Still, this is a guy that has a World Title to his name and finished just outside the Top 5 in 2014, so we've become accustomed to better results.

Joel Parkinson on the Gold Coast, where he'll look to get off to a good start in 2016.
Courtesy of Michael Dawes

2012’s World Title seems like a long time ago, and there are a lot of young, talented surfers on the rise on the CT. Maybe Parko doesn’t have that fire in his belly anymore, or perhaps he’s just on the downside of his career. He’s one of the smoothest surfers to ever hit the pro tour, and I think we can expect some solid yet unspectacular results from him in 2016. At 34 years old, Parko has had a great career of consistent World Title contention, but perhaps those days are behind him.  

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @ GoLeftSurf

Mick Fanning Leads World Tour Rankings

In 1976, Peter Townend was named surfing's first World Champion. The odd part about that honor being bestowed on Townend was the fact that he didn't win an event that year. However, he surfed the most events and was consistent enough in those contests that the point system used by the then-IPS awarded him the trophy (even if the trophy was a fake). This year, we've got another Townend situation brewing, as Mick Fanning has been the model of consistency this season, reaching at least the quarterfinals of every event this year but failing to win one as of yet. We're at the mid-point of the tour, and Mick owns a narrow lead over Kelly Slater. Reigning World Champ Joel Parkinson, fresh off his dramatic win at Keramas, has catapulted himself into third place in the rankings after some disappointing results earlier in the year. Jordy Smith is currently slated fourth, while Taj Burrow rounds out the Top 5.

Who is the favorite to win the World Title this season? Your guess is as good as mine, as this race feels increasingly tight with every passing event. Nobody is separating themselves from the pack, but again, there are still five events to be surfed. Could Mick keep surfing well but missing out on wins and still take home the title this season? It's possible unless someone really tightens their game and puts up some big results. If I were Fanning, I would be most worried about Kelly and Parko, for rather obvious reasons. Kelly can win any event at any time, and if he decides to flip his killer instinct switch he could run away with this thing before anyone knew what happened. Parko, on the other hand, just got his first win of the season, and in doing so looked like the Parko of 2012. These three guys are the favorites right now in my eyes, though Jordy, Taj and Adriano are definitely in the mix. If you want a dark horse, then I'd go with Nat Young, who is surfing better than ever right now and has shown some serious consistency in his own right this season. Should be a hell of a race.

Bali Pro Down to Quarters

Hell of a day yesterday for Rounds 4 and 5 of the Oakley Bali Pro, as Keramas went off with some incredible barrels, and the boys went hunting for deep tubes (highlights below). The performance of the day undoubtedly came from reigning World Title champion Joel Parkinson, who put up a perfect heat in Round 5 against John John Florence's 19.20 in the best head-to-head performance of the competition thus far. Just going into that heat and knowing that one of those guys was going to be eliminated didn't feel quite right, but afterward it really seemed like they both deserved to advance. A vet-on-vet upset occurred in Round 5 when C.J. Hobgood ousted current number one Kelly Slater, and another stunner came one heat later when Nat Young bounced Adriano De Souza from the contest.

Here is a look at the quarters matchups:

Taj Burrow vs. Joel Parkinson
-What a heat this will be. Both guys looked seriously on their game yesterday, and it might come down to wave selection, which is why I'd give Parko the nod here. The champ hasn't won a contest yet this year, and it's really starting to feel like that streak is going to end.

Josh Kerr vs. C.J. Hobgood
Kerr had a fantastic Round 4 heat where to took down both Kelly and John John, so he's on a roll. His tube-riding has been better than I expected, as he's proving that he's much more than just an aerial guy. Will C.J.'s veteran savvy be enough here?

Julian Wilson vs. Nat Young
Julian is probably my favorite surfer on tour, though I felt he coasted a little yesterday and didn't love that. He'll need to compete harder to take down Young, one of the hottest surfers over the past few events. This is a great matchup of young guns and it's fun to know one of them will end up in the semis.

Michel Bourez vs. Mick Fanning
Normally I'd almost assume Mick is going to win this one, but Michel's game has looked tighter this week than I've ever seen it. He's becoming one of the more impressive power surfers on tour, and he's had a patient approach to this event that has netted him some of the best waves in the lineup. If pressed for a pick, I'd still take Mick, but I think it's much closer than you'd think at first glance.

Cloudbreak Comes Alive

The Fiji Pro got going again yesterday, and we saw why contest organizers were being patient in calling the contest on, as we saw some incredible waves comes through Cloudbreak. This quote from Kelly Slater (via ASP), a guy who has probably surfed this break more than any non-Fijian, really says it all about the conditions:

“That was unbelievable,” Slater said. “Those were some of the best waves I’ve ever had in a contest. On the 10, I was deep in the barrel and grabbed my rail, but I had to let go to get speed and then I hit the foam ball, I barely made that one. I did the turn and got another tube. On that one big one, it was so perfect and I just wanted to be in the right spot. As I was in the barrel, it spit really hard and there was lots of mist and I couldn’t see. The foamball pushed my tail up in to the wave and I just couldn’t come out the way I wanted to. I didn’t even care if I won or lost, because I’d get to surf again.”

That last statement was essentially the theme of yesterday's heats; the pros were so stoked and frothing at the sight of a pumping Cloudbreak that one of the sport's biggest events of the year boiled down to a simple and pure love for surfing. These guys are pros, but they were all little kids once that audibly oohed and aahed at hollow barrells and open faces. They still ooh and ahh, usually silently, but sometimes that little kid inside gets too excited an makes an appearance, and that's great to see. They're not surfing robots, after all, though sometimes their performance might have you suspecting otherwise.

We got down to the quarters yesterday, and here are the matchups:

John John Florence vs. Jordy Smith

Kelly Slater vs. Sebastian Zietz

C.J. Hobgood vs. Josh Kerr

Joel Parkinson vs. Mick Fanning

I've got to stick with my original pick of Kelly to win it all, but really several of these guys have surfed well enough thus far to make my confidence in that pick wane a bit, just because so many competitors have looked so good. John John has probably consistently surfed the best in the contest to this point, with Jordy a close second and Kelly probably right behind them, though Slater's Round 4 heat was absolutely insane. Zietz has shown that he can translate his Pipe skills to Cloudbreak without issue, C.J. Hobgood is one of the best lefthanded barrel riders in the world and always kills it in Fiji, Parko seems to finally be coming alive this season and Mick put together a 19-plus heat in the last round. This should be a great finish at what has probably my third-favorite event on the tour.

Jordy Wins in Rio

Jordy Smith has come into this season more mature and more focused after an offseason spent working on his repertoire, and the fruits of his labor are starting to show. The 25-year-old took down Brazil's own Adriano De Souza in the finals of the Billabong Pro Rio on Saturday to take home his first event of the tour season. The win, which followed up a third at Bells, puts Jordy in second place in the world tour standings right now, behind only De Souza, who leads Smith by a measly 250 points.

Adriano came out typically aggressive in the final heat, nabbing some early waves, but Jordy's patience eventually paid off. Smith's exuberance was on display after an 8.50 ride in which he linked together an aerial maneuver and a carving turn in one of the most seamless manners I've ever seen, as the South African was putting on an uncharacteristically big claim. But it may be Ariano's personality in the water that brings out the claims in his competitors. Personally, I'm not of fan of De Souza's attitude out there, but he certainly makes for fiery heats. Jordy put Adirano away for good when he busted a huge air with a grab that netted him a score of better than nine, and that was all she wrote.

One must remember that Smith was a legitimate world title contender in 2010 before struggling a bit the last two seasons. As one of the bigger surfers on tour, his power is unmatched in the water, something that puts him in elite company even among the best in the world. Could this be the year that Jordy breaks through and wins it all?

It's worth noting that Mick Fanning is right behind Adriano and Jordy in the season standings right now, as he's been the Peter Townend of the season through three events, not winning any contests but consistently contending and racking up points.  Thus far in 2013, Fanning has posted finishes of third, fifth and third, so he's in the hunt, as usual. Kelly is currently slated fourth, so as long as he's in striking distance everyone above him will be looking over their shoulders. Rounding out the Top Five is Taj Burrow, who is always near the top of the standings but never actually at the top despite his talent level.

A few other notes include the fact that Gabriel Medina finally had a strong showing this season, posting a third-place finish and showing that he's damn close to healthy if not fully there. He should be back in the title hunt within a few events; he posted a perfect 10 in the quarters that was downright naughty. Nat Young has been surfing really well this season, and he's currently ranked sixth. Reigning champion Joel Parkinson posted his second straight 13th, but it's too early to panic about Parko. Also Ace Buchan has surfed really well the last two events.

Here are highlights from the quarters on:

Rio Pro Preview

Tomorrow marks the start of the waiting period for the third event of this World Tour season, the Billabong Rio Pro. First thing's first; last year's winner, John John Florence, will miss the event with an ankle injury sustained earlier this season on the Gold Coast, so we'll have no repeat for the young gun this week. John John is undoubtedly already one of the top surfers on tour, despite his young age. It's a shame his world title hopes were dashed so early this season, but he's got plenty of years ahead of him. Last year, John John took down eventual World Champ Joel Parkinson in the final, so look for Parko to bring his best stuff to Rio once again, though that's really not going out on a limb considering the high level that Parko has been surfing at since coming back from his gruesome heel injury two years ago.

Obviously Kelly is always a threat, so no need to go into that, but I'd keep an eye on Taj Burrow. He's in the best shape of his career and has posted a third and fifth-place finish thus far this season. He currently trails only Kelly in points after two events, as does Mick Fanning. Mick is always a threat, though his best is not enough to beat some of the more flashy surfers when they're at the top of their game. I thought Jordy Smith looked really good at Bells, and I expect him to be legitimately in the hunt for the World Title this year thanks to a more mature approach.

As always, I'll be keeping a close eye on Julian Wilson, my personal favorite surfer on the World Tour since Dane Reynolds decided to focus less on competition and more on just being Dane (which I fully support). Julian has shown flashes of World Title potential, but he seems to get outmaneuvered (figuratively more than literally) pretty consistently by the tour vets, especially Parko. The conditions will dictate whether or not high-flyers like Wilson and Josh Kerr have a real shot at this thing.

Mick Fanning
Photo: Wikimedia (kanaka)

And you simply can't talk about any World Tour event without mentioning perhaps the highest of flyers, Gabriel Medina. I'm not sure how healthy his ankle is, but if it's close to 100 percent then it goes without saying that the Brazilian wunderkind is a contender. He and John John are going to be headlining the big boy tour for the next decade.

If pressed, I'd take Mick in this one, mostly on a gut call, but not completely without reason.  The Aussie has looked as solid as ever thus far this season and I think this event suits him well. He was edged out by Parko in the semis last year, and this time I think he goes all the way. You can watch the webcast of the event live here.