Upsets Abound on the Gold Coast

If there has been one theme of the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast, it’s been the upsets. We have seen giant after giant slain by wild cards and replacements, and the remaining field certainly doesn’t look like what I expected to see. The boys are halfway through the non-elimination Round 4, but there are not many big names left.

The first big upset came two days ago when Julian Wilson went down in Round 2. He looked off in his Round 1 heat, and Sebastian Zietz took him out the next round. One heat later Kelly Slater fell to Stu Kennedy, setting the tone for the upset theme at Snapper.

Things continued to get wacky in Round 3, where we saw Mick Fanning, Gabriel Medina and Taj Burrow all go down. However, one juggernaut that looked as good as we expected was Filipe Toledo. Toledo has won all of his heats, including Round 4, and has already locked up a spot in the Quarterfinals. He looks like the in-form surfer of the event thus far, and we could see back-to-back wins for the Brazilian on the Gold Coast. I mean, just look:

Aside from Toledo, we’ve still got big guns like John John Florence, Joel Parkinson and Adriano De Souza lurking, but there are also surprises like Stu Kennedy and Conner Coffin still alive. Both guys have looked excellent on this event, and it will be interesting to see just how deep that can advance. Toledo and Matt Wilkinson have locked up their spots in the quarters, and we should see more heats today.

Here are the latest highlights:

Quiksilver Pro Round 1 Recap

The Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast kicked off yesterday in some fun surf. Let’s take a look at how Round 1 played out:

Heat 1: Snapper suits Italo Ferreira well, and he started fast with the first wave of the season. It wasn’t anything special, but his smoothness on his backhand was evident from the get-go. That same smoothness earned him a 6.83 later in the heat, which ended up being the difference-maker. Ryan Callinan got close, but Italo earned the berth into Round 3.

Heat 2: This was a strong heat, and I noted that it was a tough draw for Julian Wilson. Small waves are usually not the forte of Michel Bourez, but he looked good, more like the 2014 version of The Spartan. Julian, my pick to win the event, finished third in this heat. Not time to panic yet.

Heat 3: Filipe Toledo won this event last year, and he looked good to start things off this time around. He took to the air in waves that didn’t seem all that conducive, but that’s become his trademark. He’ll be tough to beat at Snapper. Leaving him off my Fantasy Surfer team seemed suspect at the time, and now it feels even worse.

Did you leave Filipe Toledo off your Fantasy Surfer team? Probably not a great move.
Courtesy of Steven Tyler PJs

Heat 4: Medina Medina Medina. No slow start this season. The Brazilian looked dialed in, and his backhand is just naughty. He’s my pick to win the World Title this season.

Heat 5: Mick Fanning might not surf all of the events this season, but it’s clear that he didn’t slack off in training for this event. He put up the best heat total of the round and looked like the classic Mick on a pair of 8+ waves. Wade Carmichael, who narrowly missed out on a full-time spot on tour, get a nod here for surfing really well. Drawing Mick is tough.

Heat 6: Mikey Wright won a really tight heat here, upsetting the reigning World Champ. Adriano looked solid, as did Kolohe Andino, but Wright edged it out.

Heat 7: Jeremy Flores is one of the more underrated surfers on tour. Sure, everyone knows he’s an incredible barrel riders on his backhand, but the Reunion Island native can tag some lips too. His rail game looked on point in Round 1.

Heat 8: Matt Wilkinson has always had immense talent, but it only seems to translate to contest sporadically. Perhaps this was one of those sporadic occurrences, or maybe Wilko will finally put it together this year. You’ve got to love his backhand, and he showcased why yesterday. He scored a 9.33 on one wave, going vertical with some serious hacks. He took down Kelly Slater, the master, in this heat. Rookie Conner Coffin had one of the best turns of the event here too.

Heat 9: A bit of an unspectacular heat here, but Nat Young looked solid. Solid is probably the best way to describe the Santa Cruz goofy-footer most of the time. He definitely showed his power in this heat, and the judges seemed to like it.

Nat Young's power was on display on the Gold Coast yesterday.
Courtesy of Steven Tyler PJs

Heat 10: It feels like Taj Burrow is a bit of a forgotten man this year, and I may be as guilty as the next guy. Taj looked great yesterday on his forehand, and I’m glad I put him on my fantasy team for this event. It’s kind of amazing that he hasn’t won a World Title, and his window sure seems like it’s closed. Who says he can’t post a Top 5 finish this year, though?

Heat 11: For me, this heat was all about Jordy Smith when it began, but Wiggolly Dantas stole the show. He was dominant, surfing two really good waves and sending Jordy to Round 2.  

Heat 12: This was the heat I was most excited for in the first round. Joel Parkinson, the veteran, was able to outdo the young guns in this one. His patented smoothness was on display. While that’s not flashy, it got the job done. John John Florence and Jack Freestone both surfed good heats, but ultimately came up short. Parko just did a great job of maximizing his scores on waves that were not all that great, and that ended up being the difference.

The winners head to Round 3, while the rest of the guys have to surf in Round 2. Until then...

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Fantasy Surfer Picks

Here is a look at the Go Left Fantasy Surfer team for the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast:

Mick Fanning ($11.5M): Mick’s taking some time off this season, but I doubt he even considered missing out on Snapper. He still wants to qualify for the 2017 CT, so he knows he needs good results in the events in which he does participate. Therefore, don’t expect to see a laid-back approach from Mick on the Gold Coast. This is an event that Mick loves, and expect him to perform well.

Julian Wilson ($9.5M): Snapper suits Julian well, and he showed that last year by making the Final. He’s got an amazing arsenal, and I think 2016 will be a big year for him. Look for Wilson to get off to a hot start with a good result on the Gold Coast. He's my pick to win the event.

Joel Parkinson ($7M): Parko is just a year removed from making the Final at Snapper, and historically he has performed well at this event. The price tag is great for him here, and I think he’s definitely worth the selection.

Taj Burrow ($6.5M): This is a very similar pick to the Parko selection. Taj is another veteran that has performed well at Snapper over the years, and like Parko he’s got a very reasonable price tag.

Matt Wilkinson ($.5.5M): Sure, Wilko is a goofy-footer and Snapper is a right point, but Matty is at his best on his backhand. He made it to Round 5 in 2015, and he’s fresh off a victory at Surfest. He’s good value.

Koloho Andino ($3.5M): Brother had a disappointing 2015 season on the CT, but he backed himself up by surfing QS events and requalifying that way. I thought Andino was set for a career year heading into 2015, and I’m still not quite sure what happened last season. He’s supremely talented, and I like his chances of pulling an upset or two at Snapper. The talent you’re getting for the low price here is tough to find.

Jack Freestone ($3.5M): Freestone actually surfed in this event as a Wild Card last year, so there’s the experience factor. He actually performed pretty well, but was ousted in Round 2 when he came up against Kelly Slater. For this price you’re basically looking for a lottery ticket, and Freestone could take a heat or two if he gets the right waves.

Matt Banting ($3M): One of the best values of the event, in my opinion. Banting missed most of his rookie year due to injury, but prior to the ailment he took down Mick Fanning in Round 1 of this event last year before being edged out by Jordy Smith in Round 3. Not a bad track record for a guy you can get for $3M. 

When picking a lineup, my usual strategy is to spend big money only on guys that I trust to advance deep and have a real shot at winning the event (Mick, Julian). Value is a big part of this particular lineup (Parko, Taj) as well, and should always be a major consideration in building a well-rounded and deep lineup. To round things out it's always good to get some high-upside sleepers to use as lottery tickets (Kolohe, Banting). Excluding certain surfers will always be tough (Toledo, Medina), but the budget is the budget.

Play Fantasy Surfer and take a crack at your own lineup. It's free to play, and there are prizes to be won. 

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Event Preview

The waiting period for the first event of the 2016 World Surf League Championship Tour, the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast, will see the waiting period begin on March 10^th.  This event is held at Snapper Rocks, a fun right-hand point break on the famed Gold Coast of Australia. Let’s take a look at some of the most interesting Round 1 heats and make a prediction for the winner:

Heat 2 - Julian Wilson, Michel Bourez, Adam Melling: This looks to be one of the tougher heats of the first round. When the season starts, the rankings usually dictate tiered heats as one would expect, and the draws don’t get a little chaotic until after the first event of the year. However, we’ve got three pretty big names in Heat 2 here. Julian made the Final at Snapper last year and should be considered one of the favorites to win the event. Bourez had a fantastic 2014 season before some regression last year. Melling is a CT vet that missed requalifying by a single spot last year, and he’s at Snapper as a Wild Card. This is a tough draw for Wilson, as most of his elite colleagues have much easier heats to begin the event.

Heat 4 – Gabriel Medina, Caio Ibelli, Sebastian Zietz: The main reason I’m interested in this heat is to see how Medina begins the year. His slow start to 2015 was probably the only thing that kept him from winning back-to-back World Titles. If he can hit the ground, or water, running in 2016 then he should be on track to make a serious run at a second World Title.

Gabriel Medina will look to avoid a slow start in 2016.
Courtesy of A Scott

Heat 5 – Mick Fanning, Matt Banting, TBD: I think everyone is curious to see how Mick Fanning comes out of the gate this season in the wake of his decision to only surf selectevents in 2016. He knows he has to surf well when he does participate, though, with an eye on qualifying for 2017. Don’t sleep on Matt Banting, either, as he upset Mick in the first round of this event last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to Round 3 again in 2016.

Heat 8 – Kelly Slater, Matt Wilkinson, Conner Coffin: Is this Kelly’s last season? We’ve been saying that for half a decade now, and nobody really knows. Still, I’ll be keeping a close eye on how he looks at Snapper. After a 13^th last year, one would Kelly will be motivated to perform better. There is always the risk of him starting the season slowly and then skipping events down the line. Let’s hope not.

Can Kelly Slater add one more World Title?
Courtesy of chde.eu

Heat 11 – Jordy Smith, Wiggoly Dantas, Miguel Pupo: How will Jordy bounce back in 2016 from an injury-plagued 2015 campaign? That’s a big question for the CT this season, and this will be our first glimpse of the South African.

Heat 12 – Joel Parkinson, John John Florence, Jack Freestone: To me, this is the most interesting hest of the first round. Parko has surfed well here over the years, so he’s always a threat. If you read the Go Left preseason profile on John John, you know I think he’s in for a huge year. However, Parko has gotten the better of him several times in the past due to heat strategy and veteran savvy. Will John John continue to let stuff like that happen? He won’t win a World Title that way. Keep an eye on Jack Freestone too, as he’s got a ton of talent and got his feet wet with this event last year.

And finally...

The Go Left Projected Winner - Julian Wilson: I like Julian to win this event for a multitude of reasons. I see 2016 being a huge year for him, one where he is in contention for the World Title throughout the season. Snapper fits his surfing well, and he was able to make the Final last year. He’s got every trick in the book, he’s entering his prime and he’s got a competitive fire that one needs to win on the CT.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter at @GoLeftSurf

Preseason Surfer Profile: Julian Wilson

Leading up to the 2016 World Surf League Championship Tour season, I will be counting down my projected Top 10 surfers for the highest level of men's competitive surfing. A preview of the women's 2016 season is also to come.

Julian Wilson, Australia

2016 Go Left World Ranking Projection: 3

2015 World Ranking: 6

2015 WCT Wins: 0

Julian Wilson is a surfer that I expect to see take the next step in 2016. While 2014 was a lost year for Wilson aside from a surprising win at Pipe, 2015 was a resurgent campaign for the flashy Aussie. Wilson didn’t win a WCT contest in 2015, but he notched three second-place finishes, as well as a third. One of Wilson’s seconds came at J-Bay, where he and Mick Fanning were both awarded second-place points after the shark attack, but it’s hard to imagine Wilson beating Fanning that day at that break anyway.

Julian Wilson, always supremely confident in the air.
Courtesy of Steven Tyler PJs 

A few years ago I thought of Julian as a guy that could really only challenge the top surfers in high-performance waves. He’s always been dangerous in conditions often seen at Trestles and the like, but over the last couple of years he has become a better-rounded surfer, one that is a threat at every stop on the World Tour. This is evidenced by him taking second-place results at both Snapper and Fiji this year, very dissimilar events. Wilson can take to the air with the best of ‘em, but he can also tuck himself into some really gnarly barrels and get spit out with aplomb.

I must admit that Julian is one of my favorite surfers on the pro tour to watch. He’s got style, a flare for the dramatic, the guts to go for the huge maneuver and an arsenal of skills that make him one of the most exciting competitors at the highest level of the sport. Consistency has often been a weakness for Wilson, and if he can avoid early contest exits in 2016 he should be able to challenge for a Top 5 spot in the rankings and potentially the World Title. He now has the versatile game to make a run at the crown.

Follow Morgan, founder of Go Left, on Twitter @GoLeftSurf

Bali Pro Down to Quarters

Hell of a day yesterday for Rounds 4 and 5 of the Oakley Bali Pro, as Keramas went off with some incredible barrels, and the boys went hunting for deep tubes (highlights below). The performance of the day undoubtedly came from reigning World Title champion Joel Parkinson, who put up a perfect heat in Round 5 against John John Florence's 19.20 in the best head-to-head performance of the competition thus far. Just going into that heat and knowing that one of those guys was going to be eliminated didn't feel quite right, but afterward it really seemed like they both deserved to advance. A vet-on-vet upset occurred in Round 5 when C.J. Hobgood ousted current number one Kelly Slater, and another stunner came one heat later when Nat Young bounced Adriano De Souza from the contest.

Here is a look at the quarters matchups:

Taj Burrow vs. Joel Parkinson
-What a heat this will be. Both guys looked seriously on their game yesterday, and it might come down to wave selection, which is why I'd give Parko the nod here. The champ hasn't won a contest yet this year, and it's really starting to feel like that streak is going to end.

Josh Kerr vs. C.J. Hobgood
Kerr had a fantastic Round 4 heat where to took down both Kelly and John John, so he's on a roll. His tube-riding has been better than I expected, as he's proving that he's much more than just an aerial guy. Will C.J.'s veteran savvy be enough here?

Julian Wilson vs. Nat Young
Julian is probably my favorite surfer on tour, though I felt he coasted a little yesterday and didn't love that. He'll need to compete harder to take down Young, one of the hottest surfers over the past few events. This is a great matchup of young guns and it's fun to know one of them will end up in the semis.

Michel Bourez vs. Mick Fanning
Normally I'd almost assume Mick is going to win this one, but Michel's game has looked tighter this week than I've ever seen it. He's becoming one of the more impressive power surfers on tour, and he's had a patient approach to this event that has netted him some of the best waves in the lineup. If pressed for a pick, I'd still take Mick, but I think it's much closer than you'd think at first glance.

Billabong Rio Pro Completes Second Round

Finally, some surfing! The second round of the Rio Pro kicked off and was complected today in some stormy-looking surf at Barra da Tijuca. There weren't any real upsets in the round to speak of, so no surprises there.  Josh Kerr had the highest heat score of the day with a 17.94, and while the pros made the best of the conditions, only Kerr and Brett Simpson were able to crack a total of 15 in a heat.  For me, the most anticipated Round Three heats will be Taj vs. Kolohe (this could be a breakout year) and Julian Wilson vs. Sebastian Zietz.  Hopefully that will be tomorrow.

Julian Wilson Takes Flight

Someone has to name this maneuver.

Rio Pro Preview

Tomorrow marks the start of the waiting period for the third event of this World Tour season, the Billabong Rio Pro. First thing's first; last year's winner, John John Florence, will miss the event with an ankle injury sustained earlier this season on the Gold Coast, so we'll have no repeat for the young gun this week. John John is undoubtedly already one of the top surfers on tour, despite his young age. It's a shame his world title hopes were dashed so early this season, but he's got plenty of years ahead of him. Last year, John John took down eventual World Champ Joel Parkinson in the final, so look for Parko to bring his best stuff to Rio once again, though that's really not going out on a limb considering the high level that Parko has been surfing at since coming back from his gruesome heel injury two years ago.

Obviously Kelly is always a threat, so no need to go into that, but I'd keep an eye on Taj Burrow. He's in the best shape of his career and has posted a third and fifth-place finish thus far this season. He currently trails only Kelly in points after two events, as does Mick Fanning. Mick is always a threat, though his best is not enough to beat some of the more flashy surfers when they're at the top of their game. I thought Jordy Smith looked really good at Bells, and I expect him to be legitimately in the hunt for the World Title this year thanks to a more mature approach.

As always, I'll be keeping a close eye on Julian Wilson, my personal favorite surfer on the World Tour since Dane Reynolds decided to focus less on competition and more on just being Dane (which I fully support). Julian has shown flashes of World Title potential, but he seems to get outmaneuvered (figuratively more than literally) pretty consistently by the tour vets, especially Parko. The conditions will dictate whether or not high-flyers like Wilson and Josh Kerr have a real shot at this thing.

Mick Fanning
Photo: Wikimedia (kanaka)

And you simply can't talk about any World Tour event without mentioning perhaps the highest of flyers, Gabriel Medina. I'm not sure how healthy his ankle is, but if it's close to 100 percent then it goes without saying that the Brazilian wunderkind is a contender. He and John John are going to be headlining the big boy tour for the next decade.

If pressed, I'd take Mick in this one, mostly on a gut call, but not completely without reason.  The Aussie has looked as solid as ever thus far this season and I think this event suits him well. He was edged out by Parko in the semis last year, and this time I think he goes all the way. You can watch the webcast of the event live here.